Friday, September 16, 2011

What TMM have learnt this week

Having spumed out all their funding ire yesterday, Team Macro Man are resting back exhausted. It is time for reflection. So what have we learnt this week?

- Funding disasteristas have had their guns spiked by CB actions, or rather - offer of actions (you know TMM's thoughts on the funding story from yesterday's post).

- TMM are surprised that so many people who should know better don't (on many issues).

- SNB have survived the first week of eur/chf 1.2000 defence despite a crucifiction of everything Euro earlier in the week and a market adamant that it will fail. Looks solid.

- UBS didn't and doesn't. There is a really good reason why you don't promote people from back or middle office to front office: they know the systems well enough to cover their tracks. Better the norm where very few front office people have a clue what happens to a trade once they press "done". Leeson, Kerviel and Adoboli all had this in common. Note to management - if you want to hire a back or middle office guy to do a front office job, hire them from a different bank.

- When traders are in the office past 10pm, something is a foot. Risk managers should have an alert for when traders fail to "beep" out of the office.

- Judging by TMM's inbox Nigerian scammer jokes are easily transposed to Ghanaian scammer jokes.

- TMM are still scratching their heads as to how he managed $2bio, or is this the biggest kitchen sinking ever?

- All European politicians should be fired.

- Timmy G is running european policy.

- Lagarde has bigger balls than the tow hitch on a redneck's pick up.

- Be sceptical when punters declare Asia/NOK/SEK the "new safe haven".

- MXN may be cheap, but some folks seem determined, to TMM chagrin, to make it cheaper.

- Materials inventories are piling up in China and Chinese cement co's are trading really poorly (which makes TMM happy).

- In non-political land Global IP was actually not too bad in August.

- Ringfencing bad european debt would have to involve seas and oceans.

- Banks are to become village post offices.

- Village post offices are to be closed.

- Old fashioned Merchant Banking will respawn with TMM looking forward to names and addresses such as "Wimble, Womble and Phlewwin, Old Dribble Lane, The City" returning to fashion.

- leverage is for pivots.

TMM are now settling back to watch the second half of Greece vs Germany...

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