English Passions : Weddings and Football

Well TMM are still trying to be on holiday and were hoping to sneak off until next Tuesday after the bank-holidayfest in the UK. Fat chance, as this USD slugfest has picked up a pace after the Beard seismic-shifted opinion from the Plosser-rebel-hawks firmly back to the regime's dovish master plan. We will be mighty brief today, though we know we should be discussing many things. Apart from the market madness there are two major themes in London this morning. Football and a wedding.

Let's start with the scores:

Real Madrid 0 - 2 Barcelona

Federated Beards 1 - 0 Plosser's Hawks

Larry's Finks 1 - 0 Pimco Bill's

Voldemort 3 - 0 Dollar Bulls

Share Bears 0 - 1350 Spooz Longs

Volatile Vixens 15 - 43 Onemonth Silvers

Bond Vigilantes EU 3 - 14 Bankers Centrale

Spam Chuckers 1530 - 0 TMM

A-Team ECB 1 - 0 Merkel Placators

Draghi United 12 - 1 Stark Disappointments

Zombies Ununited 480bio - (-480bio) Germany

UK Doubledippers 0 - 1 ONS Fabricators

FX All Blacks 5 - 5 Walabies

Shanghai A (-3) - (- 10) Shanghai B

USA 0 - 0 Japan (gone into 3 years extra time)

And now for the wedding.

Just for a bit of fun, TMM thought they'd have a quick look at what happened to markets at the time of the last Royal Wedding in 1981. The below chart shows YoY RPI (white line), Cable (Yellow line), YoY GDP (orange line), the Bank of England Base Rate (pink line) and the FT30 Index (green line - this was before the days of the FTSE100...). Coincidentally (or not), the recession ended exactly one month after the engagement of Prince Charles & Diana was announced, with equities rallying, inflation falling (along with the Pound). The equity market peaked a month or so before the wedding, with the BoE hiking rates shortly after and the Betty put in something of a rally. Equities then bottomed just after Diana's pregnancy was announced, rallying until just before Prince William was born, with Sterling resuming its sell-off as rates were lowered in response to falling inflation.

Now TMM would like to offer their most sincere and heartfelt best wishes and hope they have many happy years of marriage. But, to be a bit mischievous (and after all, this is just for fun), TMM also thought they'd have a look at the events around Charles & Diana's separation and eventual divorce.The below chart shows Sterling rallying hard (but equities selling off) after Charles & Camilla's affair was exposed in "Diana: Her True Story" by Andrew Morton in May 1992, but falling sharply (while equities rallied sharply) after the Diana & James Hewitt's "Squidgygate" Tapes were published in Aug 1992. There was little reaction to the release of the "Camillagate" Tapes in Nov 1992, but Sterling bottomed shortly after their separation was announced in Dec 1992. News of the Queen's asking of the couple to divorce in Dec 1995 appears to led the Bank of England to begin an easing cycle, with the eventual divorce leading to another strong rally in Sterling.

Disclaimer:

In no event shall TMM be liable for any loss or damages of any nature resulting from, arising out of or in connection with the Royal Marriage of William and Catherine. Please note:

1. The stability of marriages can go down as well as up. Any children arising from them may or may not be the product of both parents.
2. You may not get back all of your original investment
3. Past relationship performance is not necessarily a guide to married life.
4. A mother-in-law is for life, not just for Christmas.